One French individual amassed an extraordinary $85 Million with Polymarket bets on the outcome of the US presidential election by supporting Donald Trump based on proprietary polling data.
“Theo,” an unidentified trader, decided not to heed conventional polling predictions which projected an extremely close race and instead invest in his own “neighbor” surveys which inquired which candidate respondents believed their neighbors would back for better insights into voting behavior.
Neighbor polls aim to combat what’s known as the “Shy Trump Voter Effect.” According to this theory, some individuals might hesitate to express their support directly or might simply opt out altogether from participating.
According to Theo, people tend to be more comfortable discussing their perceptions of neighbors’ preferences rather than directly declaring their voting intentions, thus eliminating potential bias when declaring voting intentions directly.
No Political Motives
Theo concluded from his polling that conventional polls significantly overstated Kamala Harris support. In conversations with reporters from The Wall Street Journal, Theo noted his research conducted with an unnamed US pollster showed surprising strength towards Donald Trump; these polls not only anticipated him winning crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but even predicted an outright popular vote victory–something not accomplished during 2016!
Theo characterized himself as an ex-banker with substantial personal assets who bet them against themselves to win, emphasizing there were no political motivations behind his action.
There is some concern that sizeable bets by wealthy individuals or groups could influence market perceptions and ultimately alter election outcomes by altering public morale or voter turnout.
Adjusted Earnings Announcement
Initial estimations indicated that Theo’s betting across four Polymarket accounts earned him just $48 million; however, subsequent review by Bloomberg identified eight accounts associated with him, prompting an upward revision in earnings estimates.
Total bets on the US presidential race through Polymarket totaled an estimated $3.7 billion and Theo’s strategy has come under scrutiny by L’Autorite Nationale des Jeux to determine whether Polymarket conforms to regulatory requirements.
Polymarket operates out of New York as an unregulated betting platform with decentralized finance; users are able to speculate on world events using yes/no event contracts.
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